Well, people keep buying real estate in San Diego County. The upper end in many areas is being crushed, but the lower end is being bought up like mad. That is really good news. As I said in my last post, there are now properties that have more than 50 offers on them. These are all in the lower price ranges. If you’re a buyer for a larger home ($600K or more), you can buy a home that was $1million a couple years ago. As a matter of fact, you cannot build these properties for the money you will buy them for today. Land is another value buy today, IF you are convinced that you can endure the process to build. No loans available, though, unless you just want to borrow 40-50% of the purchase price. Right now, you can buy a piece of land in an exclusive area of Alpine for $225K that was around $400K just last year. Scary! Some of my colleagues (NOT those in real estate!) are thinking that we have a “way to go” to get to the bottom. Of course, they could be right, and I acknowledge that–but the likelihood is that real estate will fluctuate around its current pricing (interest rate increases will tend to drive it down a bit, and interest rate decreases will tend to drive the price up a bit), but we are now, I think, floating along the bottom. It’s anyone’s guess as to when the market will truly begin its upswing–it could be much sooner than anyone expects, if we enter an inflationary spiral (and IF interest rates remain reasonable). Assets become the only protection we have against loss, since assets (in an environment of rapid inflation) rapidly rise in price, while the income these assets produce also rises to meet inflation. Purchasing these now makes a great deal of sense, because the income versus price equation changes dramatically once prices rise–even though it’s hard to complain if your actual investment is 25% of the value of the asset, and the new tenant pays the loan; every value increase is then multiplied by 4 against your original investment; at this level of leverage, the income must typically go to pay the loan on the property, but once paid off, the investment property becomes both a “cash cow,” and a huge value when you sell. Of course, if you are buying a home to live in (many of my clients buy their homes from me), then you are looking at other things besides value–comfort, location, personal desirability and the like.
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The funniest thing happened on the way to the Recession…
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